Sunday, December 16, 2018

The robbery-hack – Money – Kommersant

The Heist the hacker


In 2017, the damage will probably be even more. Rob financial institutions, ironically, became easier, and fraud protection new type is bad.

Theft of the year

On the last day of winter 2016, February 29, capital Metallinvestbank lost 200 million rubles. Them, as was found later, was stolen by hackers. It all happened quickly. Terminals, which operated a correspondent account of a credit institution to the Central Bank, began unauthorized to send money to third party accounts. Recipients — individuals in commercial banks throughout the country.

Suspicious behavior computers in Metallinvestbank found immediately assured, "Money," Deputy Chairman Mikhail Okunev. "It was a hacking channel workstation client of the Bank of Russia, arm the CBD," he said. Hacking, according to Okuneva, lasted about an hour. To stop transfers, the Bank requested the Central Bank to disconnect it from the system calculations. This time from the correspondent accounts Metallinvestbank left 667 million. "A third of the money back immediately, about a third was arrested on the Bank accounts, we expect that they will return to us on the results of the trial, which we expect will begin in April",— says Mikhail Okunev. About 200 million rubles, as has been said, the Bank still has not returned: the accounts controlled by the attackers or their quickly cashed out or moved on.

This story is a rare for Russia in the final. Three months later, in June 2016, the FSB and the interior Ministry said that together in 15 regions of the Russian Federation have detained 50 persons, members of hacking group called Buhtrap. It was noticed even in 2014, when she was fleecing the company. And in August 2015 the group to focus exclusively on financial institutions:

for the six months to February 2016, Buhtrap made 13 successful attacks on Russian banks, stealing 1.8 billion rubles, said Group-IB, specializing in the prevention and investigation of cyber attacks.

This group, sources say "Money" in the banking market, and is behind the attack on Metallinvestbank. In Group-IB this view is shared.

An increase of 300%

Stealing from Metallinvestbank 667 million roubles was the largest in Russia — from those that were published. The average hacker theft of Russian banks in the period June 2015 to may 2016 was about 140 million rubles. Although there were large sums. "In two cases, the sum of 2.5 times the Bank's authorized capital",— stated in last year's report, Group-IB.

In just 2016, announced in February 2017, the Central Bank, Russian commercial banks hackers stole 2.2 billion rubles.

"If to speak about the attempted theft of cash from the accounts of credit institutions, in 2016, such attacks were nine organizations, said, "Money," the press service of the regulator.— The attackers tried to steal about 5 billion rubles. When this failed to stop the theft, for a total amount of 2.8 billion rubles." Obviously, banks in 2016 would have lost an even greater amount, if not capture members Buhtrap, group, which, according to Group-IB, accounted for two-thirds stolen from banks.

The total amount of cibercasino financial institutions over the past year, however, may be more. At least, according to the estimates of Group-IB, for the period June 2015 to may 2016 at the Russian banks as a result of targeted attacks (when the victim is not random, but chosen with knowledge of the case) hackers stole 2.5 billion rubles.

The amount of targeted cibercasino banks, according to Group-IB, the same period of 2013-2014 increased by 292%. (According to the Bank, from June 2015 to may 2016 Russian banks hackers have stolen 1.37 billion rubles.) "We are often accused that we overstate the numbers, I think we underestimate,"— emphasizes the Director of the cyber crimes investigation division, Group-IB Dmitry Volkov.

More recent figures for 2017 while the company has no, but in the banking community, informally, the "Money" if you do not confirm an increase in the amount stolen, the increase in the number of cyber attacks in the Russian financial organizations. (The amount stolen at one time may fall.) "Attack for the sake of money the banks themselves are committed more often. It is believed that in the last few years the number of attacks is doubling every year," confirms Elman Mehdiyev, Executive Vice-President of the Association of Russian banks (ARB). And the company Positive Technologies, also involved in the investigation of cybercrime, predicts that in 2017, hacker attacks on banks in Russia will be more than 30%. This also applies to processing, brokerage agencies, money transfer operators — their losses from cibercasino will also increase.

Not recognized

Metallinvestbank is a rare exception to the rule. He publicly acknowledged the theft and the amount of damage from hackers. About cybercrash (though without details) also reported Russian international Bank and Kazan Allanbank. Others prefer the losses are not spread.

Meanwhile, in the US, for example, a financial organization, if you want to avoid large fines, damage from hackers must not only bring to the regulator, but publicly disclose. We, bankers say, such information, financial and credit institutions did not betray to wide publicity, for fear of the large image and reputational losses (and the law is their openness does not oblige).

Open data about how much the hackers have stolen from the accounts of the banks, their clients — individuals or legal entities in Russia.

The relevant statistics of the Central Bank formed from Bank statements that till 2015 no hurry to share with the regulator confidential information on cybercrash. Just over a year ago they were obliged to do it. "The data of the Central Bank in the whole keberkesanan in Russia do not reflect the pattern— said the former head of Department in the management of the interior Ministry, who requested anonymity.— They are much more than say the banks." This, however, relates primarily to cybercrash customers of financial institutions. To hide from the Bank such attacks against themselves not in the interests of the banks, believe interlocutors of "Money." But to make it quite real.

"Forming the statistical reporting, the Bank of Russia proceeds from the fact that the credit of the organization in good faith approach to the reporting,— said the press service of the regulator.— By the end of 2016, statistics of Bank of Russia is almost completely correlated with statistics of the Affairs of such crimes".
Banks — the main target

Photo: Reuters

A few thousand stolen with your card— mining "shchipachev". Professional computer criminals "take" at a time hundreds of millions.

If in 2013 the main target of skilled hackers were customers of the banks, now — financial institutions, saying the respondents "Money" experts. Most professional criminals, trained on companies, shifted to the banks. There are risks and excitement above, the case is more complicated, but Kush is much more tempting.

Income from hackers, targeted attacks on banks over the period from June 2015 to may 2016, according to Group-IB, "blocked total earnings from all other methods of theft, making banks the most attractive target." If banks for a specified period, the hackers stole 2.5 billion rubles, legal entities — 956 million from individuals using desktop computers — 6.4 million of them, but through smartphones— 348,6 million.

With legal entities of one theft in online banking, you can "get" almost 300 times less than that of banks: 480 million versus 140 million rubles.

With both working, most skilled hackers are "elite". Accounts of ordinary citizens ransack a separate group cyberhawks is, experts say, in fact, an analogue of low-skilled shchipachev in the digital age. From Bank accounts of citizens through desktop computers they steal on average over time at 51.6 per thousand, using Android smartphones — an average of 4 thousand at a time (a bit, but then the thefts occur much more often).

The Russian market of cibercasino for II kV-l 2015 — I kV-l 2016

Type of theftThe number of hacker groupsThe average amount of one theft, RUB.The total amount of the theft, RUB.Growth to the previous period, %Targeted attacks on banks 5 140 million 2.5 billion 292
Internet banking for legal entities 6 480 thousand 956 million -50
Desktop individuals 1 51.6 thousand 6.4 million -83
Android smartphones have individuals 11 4 thousand 348,6 million 471
Cashing steals funds 1.7 billion 44
Total 5.5 billion 44

Source: Group-IB

Is not invulnerable

The country now has about 570 commercial banks, and hackers, most likely, felt all (including more than 300 closed during the CB started cleaning). "Banks that do not attack, no," said Elmar Nabiev, head of the Department responding to information security threats by company Positive Technologies. "The hackers are all— agrees Alexey Golenischev, Director of monitoring of electronic business of alpha Bank.— But in a secure Bank from where it is difficult to withdraw the money, few will enter".

Many financial institutions, especially regional ones, are poorly prepared for cyber attacks. "Banks, particularly in regions still believe that the cyber fraudsters gutted only customers that already paid," says a top Manager from the banking sector, who wished to remain anonymous. Elmar Nugaeva, as a rule, after the first theft, banks change their approach. "We do have fewer of these"— he said. Less including the fact that the majority of the closed banks — regional.

"The willingness of different ways, depending on the value of the Bank. Large ready to attack medium and small — not all... But you can never be one hundred per cent ready to betrayal within the organization regardless of the size of the pot," says Elman Mehdiyev from ARB. Roman Chaplygin, Director of analysis and control of cyber security risks PwC, drew attention to the lack of funding: "In Russia there are many banks that do not have sufficient financial resources for building a cyber security system within the organization and reflection attacks".

However, there is another problem. "Some banks in Russia and abroad do not believe that computer crime exists,— says Ilya Sachkov, CEO of Group-IB.— Even in respected state institutions there are people who also do not believe it".

Weak willingness of credit institutions to demonstrate cyber attacks and penetration tests in the information system of companies and banks undertaken in 2015, Positive Technologies. Tested 17 institutions in Russia and abroad, a third of which were banks and financial organizations.

In 82% of the systems, it was possible to get into the network in every second case it was possible to gain control over critical resources of the companies, and 28% obtained a full control over the entire organization's infrastructure.

Elmar Nugaeva, the situation today has not changed significantly "In the banking sector from the point of view of security, all is not well. Most intruders do not cause difficulties obtaining full privileges on the network. The results of our investigations of incidents at banks show that in most cases the attack ended in complete compromise of the network and theft of funds."

The weakness of banks

Credit institutions seems to be invested in cybersecurity. Even despite the crisis. "According to our data, in 2017, Russia's budget for cybersecurity has grown by 18%",— says Roman Chaplygin, PwC.

The increase in the budget, however, does not always help. "Many banks are limited to investment in security on the level of compliance, explains Elmar Nabiev.— Put a tick in the document, the correct means of protection bought — so all is well. You can't just take a piece of metal and forget, information security is a process, the infrastructure of banking organizations is changing, cyber criminals are updating tools and attack patterns, so security is constantly something to improve."

Those who have provided cyber defence, which did not help, found themselves in a very sticky situation. "Unfortunately, many members of the information security Department concealed from the management of banks problem, and it could last up to 2013-2014 year,— says Ilya Sachkov.— You spent a lot of money, but the problem is not solved. And you have to spend more. We have some banks were even conflicts when we are using a monitoring system was able to identify crimes on the stage of their training, know someone who might steal the money, reported this to officers of information security, and they this information is not used, afraid to show leadership. Happened theft".

Those who guide the Bank's money to cyber defence is not identified, use this as an excuse to shirk responsibility, saying that we were asked for money, and you have not given, said wished to remain anonymous top Manager from the banking sector. "In those banks where IT-security is part of a service that grew from physical security, what happens most often",— said our interlocutor.

Sergey Golovanov, leading anti-virus expert "Kaspersky Lab" participated in the investigation of cybercrash in financial institutions, agrees: "Often the problems banks do not have budgets, and awareness about the incidents.

The majority of attacks happening at the stupidity, negligence, accident, if you want. And so all over the world.

If the Bank technically follows the letter of the law (the so-called paper cybersecurity), he will still become a victim of the malefactor".

"Not enough to buy expensive systems, says Elmar Nabiev.— For their effective operation and for setting the required highly skilled and expensive personnel, and not every Bank can afford to keep the state of such professionals. Yes, they very little".

Knowledgeable professionals not only in banks but also in law enforcement, tells a source "Money" in the management of the Ministry of internal Affairs: "Almost no investigators, investigators are able to understand the technical side of the business, to combine the episodes and explain their essence to the Prosecutor and the judge."

The thief

Using only the insider, steal money in Russia and have cash in banks that take the money and get the instructions where to wire it. "There are groups of cyber criminals — they get access to such mail have cash in the Bank or the sender of the money,— says Dmitry Volkov of Group-IB.— Scammers see the correspondence with hacked email send these orders to the Bank.

For example, today the money must go to China — attackers intercept such a letter, substitute it: Yes, the same China, but another legal entity. And 200 million dollars go in the wrong company.

Mail they control. The Bank asks: "Just go there?" Hackers answer: "Yes, there." And that's all. The amount of theft is higher here, much is being done on a tip".

The sort of Bank clients or partners that gray stole the money that he had suffered a wash-out or cash in, the criminal in essence, the scheme?
How to Rob banks

Photo: AP

Your employees refused to subscribe to a print newspaper or a popular weekly magazine? Wait for the hackers and robbers.

The human factor

The attack on the Bank first and foremost an attack on the person.

The cyber criminals for starters, it is important to get into the computer Bank clerk.

From there you will have the access on the local network, hackers gain administrator privileges that allows you to attack systems that are responsible for financial transactions: the arm of the CBD, the ATM network, the exchange terminal, electronic payments and Bank transfers, SWIFT and payment processing system. That gives you the opportunity to steal money.

So, most likely, the theft occurred in Metallinvestbank: payment terminals and the enterprise network were United that played into the hands of hackers. "It's hard to say what was the original point of entry into the banking system,— says Mikhail Okunev.— But all vulnerabilities are closed and we are constantly improving it. We shared physically shared banking network and those machines that are responsible for sending any payments. The Bank conducted a complete restructuring of the system of information security".

Mail hacking

Ways of penetration to the computer Bank employee several. The most common is through email. Specific employees should be sent a letter with the document, where the embedded malicious program with the so-called exploits. Exploiting vulnerabilities in the software, they find the back door on the employee's computer. To the malicious file is opened, attackers are sending it on behalf of clients of the Bank, or TSB (as did the group Buhtrap), or from government agencies.

The letter may be confirmed by a phone call saying, check the details of the contract a reconciliation statement, last orders. Not necessarily this will be the email addresses: hackers can send infected files and these, but compromised addresses. In addition, it may be a genuine letter from the partners, but with the malware.

"The attackers appear to make the attack through numerous Bank counterparty with which the system of protection from cyber threats is often not developed", —

says Roman Chaplygin.

What happens next? The employee opens a document, for example, in format .pdf and built-in, the malware checks if there is a vulnerability in the "reader". They are often, as updates that put "patches" to the software are made regularly. However, updates are not a panacea, they only reduce risks: from programs, to the delight of hackers, the vulnerabilities exist unknown to developers.

Using these vulnerabilities, with exploits embedded in the submitted document, cyber criminals enter through the back door on the victim's computer. "The attacker puts a program that will allow you to get the administrator passwords of the network, then it goes to a different computers and full access is given,— says Ilya Sachkov.— We investigated the case when the attacker has controlled the entire banking network, stealing a large amount from the correspondent account, which is then sprayed on different accounts and cashed. They had access to the mail server, main servers, and they read how the Bank reacted to the investigation."

Vile through the newspaper

Another way to get on the computer to the employee of the Bank — the massive, outgoing, experts say that in the past. Fraudsters committing so-called meanest popular sites, such as business and news publications, legal and government guides. Unbeknownst to their owners, the hackers inserted in the website a small program that checks all visitors, their browser, operating system, flash player, pdf reader, version updates, etc. "in This way is vulnerable software — on average 13-15% of the visitors,"— says Dmitry Volkov. By the way, now this way, according to Group-IB, is actively used to infect Trojans and theft of money from Android. Then after discovered the backdoors are downloaded to the computer programs that check, particularly if his connection with the banking or accounting software, some antivirus costs, etc. of these computers may be in the Bank.

But criminals don't know which computer they came. To cope with the problem, for example, they have uploaded the modified malicious program, find out whether there are traces of work with banking or accounting applications. "In some cases it works: you're lucky, and

one of thousands hacked will be the accountant's computer, the antivirus on it is bad, there is an opportunity to steal the money,"

says Volkov. When it comes to penetration in the banking network, the scammers lately, entering the computer, often using a legitimate or a free remote management tools. It previously was necessary to write the Trojans, now the system of theft in banks automatiseret and greatly reduces the cost, the penetration of banking network, said Group-IB, "does not require special expertise or hard-to-reach software."

To steal and cash out

According to a source in the administration of the MIA for cashing cybercriminals pay 30-60% of stolen, depending on the "purity" of money, the complexity of the schemes. If the amount is large, money is being wasted: for example, pre-bought so-called salary project, when 50 million rubles through legal entity is displayed on 50 Bank cards.

Or money fly, for example, two thousand Qiwi-wallet and 100 thousand SIM cards, and with them — on the Bank card. To withdraw money to hire people who have "Shine" at ATMs; they are paid about 5% of the shot.

If you need to get a lot at once, a man sent to a Bank branch with a certified document from the Director of one-day firms, and it gets all over the counter. When groups engaged in cashing in, break up or go to the bottom, the theft temporarily ceased. However, cash can be anywhere, says Elmar Nabiev: hackers have successfully used foreign accounts.

The attack on the ATM

New technologies are changing the scheme. Entering the Bank's network, you can steal money from ATMs. "Now hackers penetrate the corporate network of the Bank, find ATM network that is implemented on the computers of employees who these ATMs serve, and download malware to the ATMs," says Abigael. Accomplices of the hackers involved in the cashing out approach to the ATMs, and hacker remotely instructs the device to dispense cash. This scheme of theft of money, he said, is gaining popularity. Cases of such thefts has hit the media, but the amount of theft and ATM owners were not specified.

Useful hackers to the fact that a small number of absalikov allows you to pick a lot of ATMs. "Banks can not be seen immediately, since collection of ATMs daily, and the banking system can report that the cash is still there, says Abigael.— It may take a week until it turns out: money is stolen. Find the criminals is difficult because the time has already been lost, and the traces of their crimes are usually swept out — for instance, hackers shut off the cameras on the ATMs."

Entering into a computer system of a financial organization, in July 2016, a group of young people in masks attacked organized 34 ATM of one of Taiwan's biggest banks, First Bank, taking 83,27 million Taiwan dollars (more than $2 million).

In August, a similar scheme was stolen 12 million baht (about $350 million) of the 21 ATM Government Savings Banks in Thailand. In September a similar attack, said Group-IB, was recorded in Europe, but the publicity did not betray them.

"Stages of cybermedia money from banks"

StageMethod of actionPenetration Main — sending phishing emails with an attachment in the document with exploit/macro, executable file, or password-protected archive with the executable file. Create attachment c exploit, you can use ready-made tools. To send an executable file requires no special tools.
Remote access After a successful infection, all groups use different remote management tools. As a rule, it is legitimate and free tools.
Obtaining privileges Getting remote access into the Bank's network, attackers often use a free tool that allows you to extract user names and passwords in cleartext from memory of the infected computer. The source code for this utility available to everyone without restrictions.
Search purposes Having the privileges of a domain administrator, the crooks begin to explore the internal network of the Bank in the search engines. Goals can be the system of interbank transfers, instant transfer, network management, ATM, payment gateways, card processing. The search is performed manually and requires no special tools.
Work with target systems Interested in finding system, the attackers using the same remote management tools monitor the actions of legitimate operators, in order to subsequently repeat their steps and send the money to the affiliated account. More advanced groups use tools for modifying payment documents — simple scripts or executable files, repeating the script that automatiseret the formation of fraudulent payments.
Cashing If the first five stages are available to many hackers and each of them can be implemented with minimal cost, to withdraw large amounts of cash need people with experience and resources. So, when a professional group engaged in cashing in, break up or go to the bottom, the theft stops.

Source: Group-IB

"Summer wave of theft was only testing the possibilities of attacks on ATMs, which in the future will be one of the main vectors targeted cyber attacks on banks",— experts of Group-IB. Group obidegwu under this scheme, the ATMs, the company called Cobalt. She, according to Group-IB, attacked banks in Russia, Britain, the Netherlands, Spain, Romania, Belarus, Poland, Estonia, Bulgaria, Georgia, Moldova, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia and Malaysia. Technique penetration in banks, say experts on cyber security, the same methods used by the group Buhtrap. "We can assume that at least some of the participants Buhtrap came in Cobalt or, equally likely, the backbone Buhtrap just switched to attacks on ATMs",— said Group-IB.
Who robs banks

Photo: Reuters

Unshaven man in a mask with a gun? Fatal beauty in black latex? The modern robber is different. And more recently have received the school fives in computer science.

Company Group-IB believes that against Russian financial institutions has five criminal groups in many ways — speaking. In fact "coders", people who write programs used by hackers, a little bit, say the investigators of cybercrimes. And they usually don't participate in the theft. The majority of cyberjammies copy already known or use the freely available experience.

They are not alone, because the real difficulty for them is only the final stage — cashing. "These groups work with those who are engaged in cashing in. And this criminal group",— says Ilya Sachkov.

The main Russian-speaking hacker group

The group ANUNAK

Purpose: the System of interbank transfers, instant transfer, network management, ATM, payment gateways, card processing, POS terminals, trading platforms, government agencies.

Why important: the Group responsible for the first successful targeted attacks on banks in Russia. The most experienced group: in 2013-2014 attacked more than 50 Russian banks and 5 payment systems, stealing a total of more than 1 billion rubles. Also attacked the POS terminals in the U.S. and European retail chains. Actively involved people in the attacks and shared their experiences. Has a number of followers copying her tactics.

Status: Not done one successful theft in Russia since the beginning of 2015, the Trojan is still used for attacks on companies outside the CIS. In Russia recorded the attack using its malware. the goal of such attacks is espionage.


Purpose: Card processing, ATMs, stock exchange terminals.

Why important: In February 2015, made the first in the world to attack the broker, causing abnormal volatility in the currency market. Having infected the internal network of the Bank, the criminals gained access to the exchange terminal and held a series of transactions that resulted in a jump in the dollar against the ruble by almost 20%. Damage to the Bank amounted to 224 million rubles.

Status: Suspended operations.


Purpose: the System of interbank transfers.

Why important: a sample of a successful reorientation of the group occupying leading positions by the volume of theft from legal entities. From August 2015 to February 2016, has made 13 successful attacks on Russian banks, stealing 1.8 billion rubles. In two cases, the sum of 2.5 times the Bank's authorized capital.

Status: Suspended attacks on banks, continuing the theft from legal entities by using a botnet, sold to other attackers.

Group: LURK

Purpose: the System of interbank transfers.

Why important: was Developed by one of the most advanced Trojans for the theft of legal entities, allowing you to seamlessly replace the data and the amount of payment systems, Internet banking, and also bypass the SMS confirmation of payments. In February 2015, stole 150 million rubles from Russian Bank, and then made two more unsuccessful attempts of attacks in Russia and Ukraine.

Status: the members of the criminal group arrested in may 2016. The part of the attacker remains at large and may soon return to deliberate attacks on the system of interbank transfers.

Source: Group-IB

Quick money

Who robbed Metallinvestbank not officially disclosed, but hardly a hacker group Buhtrap differs in composition from similar. As a rule, says Sergey Golovanov from Kaspersky Lab "" the young educated guys who have had solid five on Informatics in school and are well finished technical College: "They once tried to steal the money, and they did. They know that after University they by and large have the following career options: working for my uncle for eight-ten hours in the office or in a free mode to write malware and thus make money."

Choice for many is obvious: there is the experience of friends who on cybercrime has risen. With a glamorous image far from criminal. Eventually, the person quickly learns to steal.

"Cybercrime in Russia is dominated by banking crimes,"

says Ilya Sachkov. That is Russian the cyber fraudsters steal mostly money. Today, according to Golovanov, in the world there are two major geographical region, where is concentrated the attackers, chasing money banks and their clients— Russia and the CIS, and Brazil.

The most famous of Russian hackers, apparently, 30-year-old Dmitry Fedotov, also known as the Paunch (belly), whose program exploits Blackhole and Cool Exploit Kit have provided 40% of infections worldwide, and the damage amounted to billions of dollars. Dollar millionaire traveled to Togliatti for the city's only white "Cayenne", which helped to arrest him. In April 2016 he was sentenced to seven years — an unprecedented event, as Fedotov himself in keberkesanan was not involved, only wrote programs for them.

Hackers for export

Ilya Sachkov says that the main developers of the malware are Russian — speaking, and they live around the world: "such people Have a high IQ, lack of parental care in childhood, lack of understanding of what is good and what is bad. Perhaps this is the lost generation of the 1990s".

16 of the 19 known banking Trojans associated with Russian hackers and the Russian cyberpsace very successfully captured the world market hacker software.

"There was a small criminal IT companies, who do everything necessary to cybercrash tools,— says Sachkov.— Now you do not need to have 20 years of experience to deal with computer crime." Worth it, says a source in the administration of the MIA cheap.

After a series of arrests in 2016 (in addition to the members Buhtrap detained the creators of the banking Trojan Lurk, which, according to "Kaspersky Lab" involved in the capture, over the last five years stole 3 billion) fraud began to shift to abroad. Russian-speaking, usually from Russia and Ukraine — hackers vengeance administer large botnets that get devices Internet of things: smart fridges, kettles and TVs. (And it seems the only way to be sure that your new washing machine didn't break the Bank— do not connect it to the network.)

These hackers formed a market of services, - said Mikhail Kondrashin, technical Director involved in the analysis of cybercrime Trend Micro in Russia. Appearing year in 2004, a Russian hacker underground, in his words, "radically changed the balance of power" in the world: "Now, attackers didn't need to reinvent the wheel. It is sufficient to find the suitable supplier of goods or services and to implement the plans immediately, explains Kondrashin.— The attack on the Internet become more complex and multidimensional". Group-IB predicts that Russian hackers, having successful experience of attacks on banks in Russia and Ukraine, will be transferred to other regions of the world.

Tuesday, December 04, 2018

What will happen to bitcoin in ten years?

What will happen to bitcoin in ten years?

What will happen to bitcoin in ten years?

It has been almost ten years since bitcoin appeared-the first block was generated on January 3, 2009, and the first transaction took place on January 12. Despite the fantastic UPS and downs, which bitcoin has experienced during this decade, it still remains the most famous and popular cryptocurrency with a market capitalization of more than $112 billion, occupying the first place in all ratings.

Will bitcoin be able to hold a leading position in ten years? Most of the crypto-enthusiasts are sure that it will be so.

However, there are skeptics whose arguments look convincing. So, Nigel green, founder and CEO of consulting company deVere Group, believes that the next ten years are unlikely to be a time of triumph of bitcoin.

It is quite obvious that bitcoin has changed our view of money forever. However, tectonic shifts in the global economy associated with both bitcoin and digital assets in General have not yet occurred. Nevertheless, it is already clear: neither governments, nor financial regulators, nor wall street, nor the banking sector as a whole can afford to ignore the crypto-currency industry.

But, being the cause and the basis of the upcoming revolutionary changes, bitcoin is likely to lose its leading position sooner or later.

One explanation is very simple — competition.

"I believe that the dominance of bitcoin will decrease dramatically in the second decade [of its existence], — said Nigel green. — This is due to the massive development of the industry: more and more different digital assets will be launched in both the private and public sector. This will increase competition and reduce bitcoin's market share."

In his opinion, the total market capitalization of digital assets over the next ten years will grow by 5000% and will amount to $20 trillion.

The main competitors of bitcoin will be Ethereum and Ripple (XRP), suggests Nigel green.

"I think that XRP will become one of the main digital assets, which will lead to a reduction in the market share of bitcoin in the next few years due to its obvious focus on integration with banks and other financial institutions," he says.

Another contender for the first place is ether: Ethereum blockchain is more often than other solutions used by developers of decentralized applications, and crypto currency as a means of payment is used by almost all ICO projects.

In our opinion, not everything is so simple. The authoritative American economist, Professor of Economics at new York University, Nouriel Rubini, for an unknown reason, so disliked Ethereum and its creators that he once even said that "75% of applications [based on the Ethereum blockchain] are crypto-kittens, fraudulent Ponzi schemes and casino games". Of course, this is a strong exaggeration. But the fact that the Ethereum network now has serious problems with scaling, almost no one denies, including Vitalik Buterin. So the future of ether largely depends on how the development team will be able to cope with them.

The situation with Ripple is even more controversial. Despite the fact that banks have been actively testing the Ripple solution for a long time, which allows to reduce the speed of cross-border transfers from a few days to a few minutes, and three weeks ago the company announced the commercial launch of xRapid, Ripple's technological successes are not always positively correlated with the cost of the XRP token. Add continuing until the SEC USA reflections on the theme: "to Count or not tokens XRP securities?". In addition, (someone will think this is a conspiracy version) is not necessarily in the banking sector happy to perceive the success of Ripple-otherwise we would see a widespread refusal to use the interbank system of information transfer and making payments SWIFT, the logic of which has not changed dramatically since the 70 — ies of the last century.

Why isn't this happening? And who can definitely say that somewhere in the bowels of wall street or the R3 consortium is not currently developing a technology like xRapid? The banking community is known to love not only money, but also (perhaps even more) the impact on the economy and the power that money guarantees.

In short, the probability that bitcoin will give way to the palm in one way or another, in our opinion, is very high. But who will take his place? Even with the current problems of Ethereum and Ripple, it could be them. Equally, the first place can take stablecoin issued by the us Federal reserve Or other Central Bank-why not? Or Alcon that maybe haven't even created a private company, anything is possible.

But hardly anyone knows the exact answer. However, bitcoin will surely celebrate its twenty-year anniversary.

Bitcoin's 'death spiral'

Bitcoin's 'death spiral'

Bitcoin's 'death spiral'

The fall of Bitcoin below the cost of production may delay investors and miners in the "spiral of death", according to Finance Professor Atulia sarin. A teacher of the Department of Finance of the University of Santa Clara is sure that the cost of cryptocurrency will fall to zero, ruining everyone who invest in this market.

The main reason for the fall is the lack of the concept of traditional value in Bitcoin, unlike any other asset, the digital currency is a set of numbers distributed among users ' computers.

Oil, gold, shares of enterprises, any other financial and banking instruments have a clearly defined value and value. If, for any reason, the cost of produced or produced goods is higher than the current rate – this will not lead to a drop in their value, even with a complete stop of production.

Cryptocurrency can not exist without mining, as it supports transactions and ensures the security of the network. If this process is stopped – Bitcoin will cease to exist, so miners are drawn into the spiral of death – the process of mining to the complete ruin of the business.

Proof of the decline of the mining industry is the fall in the complexity of the pow mining algorithm, which automatically adapts to the current load. After another recalculation, it collapsed by 15% – the second largest drop in the history of the crypto currency. The previous decline occurred in 2011, when the network was just beginning its development.

According to the observations of Atulia sarin Bitcoin miners independently drive themselves into the spiral of death:
• Selling futures to hedge the cost to ensure the sale of mined Bitcoin in the future
* Giving away almost free old models of ASIC equipment
Judging by the hashrate schedule, which indirectly indicates the number of operating mining facilities, the death spiral "killed" about 50% of the capacity of mining mines.

Atulia sarin advises not to wait for the arrival of institutional investors-none of them will invest in "technology", which can not really be estimated. Therefore, the market will be at the mercy of speculators, who can "drop" the rate of cryptocurrencies to zero values for the sake of profit by trading with a shoulder.

Bitcoin is close to capitulation

Bitcoin is close to capitulation

Bitcoin is close to capitulation

That the wave of mass disappointment quite close I am sure Chris Buchen, an analyst at online trading platform IG.

In a recent interview with the financial times, he said that the leading cryptocurrency is close to the"moment of surrender". This will happen at a time when a critical mass of investors will start to leave the market, launching unpleasant for its holders cycle of depreciation and new sales.

Other experts also support Analytics. For example, when last week, the bitcoin exchange rate reached $ 4,000, Genesis trading CEO Michael Moreau said that the cryptocurrency is likely moving to the "bottom", to the mark of $ 3,000.

Experts believe that bitcoin is now actively drained by those who bought it before the jump in 2017. Moreau calls the two problems that were leading to massive sales. First, traders convert Fiat to digital gold to get some profit. Second, to reduce losses if the exchange rate of bitcoin will dive even lower.

According to Buchana many investors were happy to keep your bitcoin portfolio, when the rate was around $ 6,000. But they were absolutely unprepared for the $ 4,000 mark and below. According to him, such investors "are likely to take the money and run away from the market." Buchen also added that during the last week in IG observed a 20 percent rise in short positions on bitcoin.

Now the first cryptocurrency is in the red zone and shows a daily drop of 2.50%. BTC is trading at a price of $ 4,036.