Tuesday, December 04, 2018

What will happen to bitcoin in ten years?

What will happen to bitcoin in ten years?

What will happen to bitcoin in ten years?


It has been almost ten years since bitcoin appeared-the first block was generated on January 3, 2009, and the first transaction took place on January 12. Despite the fantastic UPS and downs, which bitcoin has experienced during this decade, it still remains the most famous and popular cryptocurrency with a market capitalization of more than $112 billion, occupying the first place in all ratings.

Will bitcoin be able to hold a leading position in ten years? Most of the crypto-enthusiasts are sure that it will be so.

However, there are skeptics whose arguments look convincing. So, Nigel green, founder and CEO of consulting company deVere Group, believes that the next ten years are unlikely to be a time of triumph of bitcoin.

It is quite obvious that bitcoin has changed our view of money forever. However, tectonic shifts in the global economy associated with both bitcoin and digital assets in General have not yet occurred. Nevertheless, it is already clear: neither governments, nor financial regulators, nor wall street, nor the banking sector as a whole can afford to ignore the crypto-currency industry.

But, being the cause and the basis of the upcoming revolutionary changes, bitcoin is likely to lose its leading position sooner or later.

One explanation is very simple — competition.

"I believe that the dominance of bitcoin will decrease dramatically in the second decade [of its existence], — said Nigel green. — This is due to the massive development of the industry: more and more different digital assets will be launched in both the private and public sector. This will increase competition and reduce bitcoin's market share."

In his opinion, the total market capitalization of digital assets over the next ten years will grow by 5000% and will amount to $20 trillion.

The main competitors of bitcoin will be Ethereum and Ripple (XRP), suggests Nigel green.

"I think that XRP will become one of the main digital assets, which will lead to a reduction in the market share of bitcoin in the next few years due to its obvious focus on integration with banks and other financial institutions," he says.

Another contender for the first place is ether: Ethereum blockchain is more often than other solutions used by developers of decentralized applications, and crypto currency as a means of payment is used by almost all ICO projects.

In our opinion, not everything is so simple. The authoritative American economist, Professor of Economics at new York University, Nouriel Rubini, for an unknown reason, so disliked Ethereum and its creators that he once even said that "75% of applications [based on the Ethereum blockchain] are crypto-kittens, fraudulent Ponzi schemes and casino games". Of course, this is a strong exaggeration. But the fact that the Ethereum network now has serious problems with scaling, almost no one denies, including Vitalik Buterin. So the future of ether largely depends on how the development team will be able to cope with them.

The situation with Ripple is even more controversial. Despite the fact that banks have been actively testing the Ripple solution for a long time, which allows to reduce the speed of cross-border transfers from a few days to a few minutes, and three weeks ago the company announced the commercial launch of xRapid, Ripple's technological successes are not always positively correlated with the cost of the XRP token. Add continuing until the SEC USA reflections on the theme: "to Count or not tokens XRP securities?". In addition, (someone will think this is a conspiracy version) is not necessarily in the banking sector happy to perceive the success of Ripple-otherwise we would see a widespread refusal to use the interbank system of information transfer and making payments SWIFT, the logic of which has not changed dramatically since the 70 — ies of the last century.

Why isn't this happening? And who can definitely say that somewhere in the bowels of wall street or the R3 consortium is not currently developing a technology like xRapid? The banking community is known to love not only money, but also (perhaps even more) the impact on the economy and the power that money guarantees.

In short, the probability that bitcoin will give way to the palm in one way or another, in our opinion, is very high. But who will take his place? Even with the current problems of Ethereum and Ripple, it could be them. Equally, the first place can take stablecoin issued by the us Federal reserve Or other Central Bank-why not? Or Alcon that maybe haven't even created a private company, anything is possible.

But hardly anyone knows the exact answer. However, bitcoin will surely celebrate its twenty-year anniversary.

Bitcoin's 'death spiral'

Bitcoin's 'death spiral'

Bitcoin's 'death spiral'


The fall of Bitcoin below the cost of production may delay investors and miners in the "spiral of death", according to Finance Professor Atulia sarin. A teacher of the Department of Finance of the University of Santa Clara is sure that the cost of cryptocurrency will fall to zero, ruining everyone who invest in this market.

The main reason for the fall is the lack of the concept of traditional value in Bitcoin, unlike any other asset, the digital currency is a set of numbers distributed among users ' computers.

Oil, gold, shares of enterprises, any other financial and banking instruments have a clearly defined value and value. If, for any reason, the cost of produced or produced goods is higher than the current rate – this will not lead to a drop in their value, even with a complete stop of production.

Cryptocurrency can not exist without mining, as it supports transactions and ensures the security of the network. If this process is stopped – Bitcoin will cease to exist, so miners are drawn into the spiral of death – the process of mining to the complete ruin of the business.

Proof of the decline of the mining industry is the fall in the complexity of the pow mining algorithm, which automatically adapts to the current load. After another recalculation, it collapsed by 15% – the second largest drop in the history of the crypto currency. The previous decline occurred in 2011, when the network was just beginning its development.

According to the observations of Atulia sarin Bitcoin miners independently drive themselves into the spiral of death:
• Selling futures to hedge the cost to ensure the sale of mined Bitcoin in the future
* Giving away almost free old models of ASIC equipment
Judging by the hashrate schedule, which indirectly indicates the number of operating mining facilities, the death spiral "killed" about 50% of the capacity of mining mines.

Atulia sarin advises not to wait for the arrival of institutional investors-none of them will invest in "technology", which can not really be estimated. Therefore, the market will be at the mercy of speculators, who can "drop" the rate of cryptocurrencies to zero values for the sake of profit by trading with a shoulder.

Bitcoin is close to capitulation

Bitcoin is close to capitulation

Bitcoin is close to capitulation


That the wave of mass disappointment quite close I am sure Chris Buchen, an analyst at online trading platform IG.

In a recent interview with the financial times, he said that the leading cryptocurrency is close to the"moment of surrender". This will happen at a time when a critical mass of investors will start to leave the market, launching unpleasant for its holders cycle of depreciation and new sales.

Other experts also support Analytics. For example, when last week, the bitcoin exchange rate reached $ 4,000, Genesis trading CEO Michael Moreau said that the cryptocurrency is likely moving to the "bottom", to the mark of $ 3,000.

Experts believe that bitcoin is now actively drained by those who bought it before the jump in 2017. Moreau calls the two problems that were leading to massive sales. First, traders convert Fiat to digital gold to get some profit. Second, to reduce losses if the exchange rate of bitcoin will dive even lower.

According to Buchana many investors were happy to keep your bitcoin portfolio, when the rate was around $ 6,000. But they were absolutely unprepared for the $ 4,000 mark and below. According to him, such investors "are likely to take the money and run away from the market." Buchen also added that during the last week in IG observed a 20 percent rise in short positions on bitcoin.

Now the first cryptocurrency is in the red zone and shows a daily drop of 2.50%. BTC is trading at a price of $ 4,036.